Coldwell Banker Premier Realty

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Home prices and mortgage rates

There are more variables than two
Posted: September 08, 2010 at 9:49 AM by John McClelland

David Leonhardt had an interesting post in the New York Times business section today. He provides an exibit of home prices against mortgage rates. As you can see from his chart, the relationship is not very close, that is they are not cointegrated. The relationship betweent the two series is not direct, presumably because the borrowing rate is not the only variable people need to think about prior to their home purchase. Job growth, family size, comparable rents and other factors are mixed in there too. Nev read more


Policy Objects, Numbers update
Posted: September 07, 2010 at 9:21 AM by John McClelland

HAMP, or the Home Affordable Modification Program, an initiative that the Obama administration has been pursuing recently, is missing quite a few of its intended marks. Like its name suggests, HAMP was intended to target 3 million struggling homeowners at risk of foreclosure by working with their lenders to lower or modify monthly mortgage payments so that these individuals could stay in their homes. Of course, like any program the government pushes, there are many flaws. HAMP is no exception.Ac read more

Incentives in Commercial Real Estate

Tenants find deals
Posted: September 02, 2010 at 9:11 AM by John McClelland

National commercial real estate trends continue to reflect weakness. (Gaffney, 8/26/10) notes that 88 percent of respondents to a development survey stated that development was almost non-existent in their markets. Such is the case here in Las Vegas as well and while there is still some construction in office, retail and industrial, there is almost no planned product and no planned product that we are aware of in industrial.Similarly, on, Green Street Advisors analyst Steven Fra read more

Adjustment in Commercial Real Estate

Finally some meetings of the minds?
Posted: August 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM by John McClelland

We have discussed the buyer-seller disconnect several times. Few commercial transactions have been consumated in the past couple of years as sellers have either refused to lower prices due to a different read of the fundamentals, they cannot liquidate due to capital constraints (writedowns for bank owned) or that they simply do not understand what they own or just replace number driven judgements with hope. Similarly, some buyers are unrealistic about pricing. They often believe that everything is distresse read more

More on Repeat Sales Indices

Morgan Stanley Cautions about shift-n-mix, Costar Commercial Index
Posted: August 09, 2010 at 5:15 PM by John McClelland

We have a bit of a fascination with real estate price indices. This is simply because of the disparity in different measurements. At Market IQ, we tend not to like average prices since averages are sensitive to outliers. However, when we go out with buyers and look for homes, we tend to "feel" the average more than any other number so it does have its utility in describing the market. Medians are useful but imperfect as well since like averages, they are affected by the changing mix of home sold i read more